Scientists Say Pollution May Be Masking True Extent of Climate Warming

Human-made aerosols cool the climate more than expected by altering cloud properties, revealing gaps in current climate models.

An international study led by the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Institute has shown that the formation and characteristics of low-altitude clouds are highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric aerosol concentrations. This discovery has important implications for understanding how human-generated fine particles may have moderated climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. The findings were published in Nature Geoscience.

The research drew on long-term data collected at ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure) monitoring stations in Svalbard and Finland, specifically at the Puijo Tower in Kuopio and in Pallas. These observations revealed that cloud properties respond more strongly to changes in aerosol levels than previously believed. Because cloud characteristics vary widely over time, long-term, high-quality measurements are essential to accurately assess how aerosols influence cloud behavior.

Aerosol Emissions and Climate Cooling

“Emissions of anthropogenic fine particles have cooled the climate by modifying cloud properties and have thus partly counteracted greenhouse gas-induced climate warming. Based on these results, this cooling effect is at the upper end of previous estimates based on satellite data,” says Professor Annele Virtanen from the University of Eastern Finland.

The study also evaluated the ability of climate models to describe the relationship between cloud properties and aerosol concentrations. Comparing models with observations revealed issues in how key processes are represented in the models. Additionally, the study identified significant differences between models in their predicted interactions between aerosols and clouds.

“These findings will help us develop more accurate climate models to predict future climate change. These models play a key role in assessing the climate impacts of different emission scenarios,” says Research Professor Sami Romakkaniemi from the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Reference: “High sensitivity of cloud formation to aerosol changes” by Annele Virtanen, Jorma Joutsensaari, Harri Kokkola, Daniel G. Partridge, Sara Blichner, Øyvind Seland, Eemeli Holopainen, Emanuele Tovazzi, Antti Lipponen, Santtu Mikkonen, Ari Leskinen, Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen, Paul Zieger, Radovan Krejci, Annica M. L. Ekman, Ilona Riipinen, Johannes Quaas and Sami Romakkaniemi, 3 April 2025, Nature Geoscience.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01662-y

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