Rising Waters, Melting Mountains: Pakistan Braces for Climate-Fueled Floods

 

Rising Waters, Melting Mountains: Pakistan Braces for Climate-Fueled Floods

Most countries around the world, including Pakistan, are facing the brunt of climate change. Over the past several years, there has been a noticeable increase in droughts, heat waves, smog, and irregular rainfall. The pattern of rainfall is shifting significantly. 

In Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, rain that typically occurs in November and December has been observed in March instead. Similarly, snowfall is also occurring later than its usual season.

This month, the rising heat followed by intense thunderstorms has raised concerns about potential flooding and surges in various rivers and streams.

River Flow Levels and Thresholds

As a result of the heavy and stormy rains, there is a looming threat of flooding and river surges.

Speaking to TNN, Anwar Shehzad, spokesperson for the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, stated that there is a risk of flooding in the Kabul River and its connected tributaries, for which an alert has already been issued. The alert is valid from the night of April 18 through April 20, 2025.

He added that according to the latest reports from the Meteorological Department and the Flood Forecasting Division, a strong westerly weather system is entering the upper regions of the country, especially northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which may result in heavy rainfall and other weather disturbances.

According to Anwar Shehzad, this weather system could raise water levels in the tributaries of the Kabul River and lead to flash flood-like conditions, severely impacting low-lying areas.

The PDMA has issued directives to all relevant district administrations to take immediate precautionary steps to deal with any possible emergency.

He further said that the issued advisory warns that rescue organizations in affected areas have been put on high alert, and the local population, particularly farmers and livestock owners, has been urged to stay away from rivers and streams and move their animals to safer locations.

The alert also stresses the need to ensure medical aid and relief arrangements in case of emergencies, and to have machinery and personnel ready to remove debris or obstructions from roads, bridges, and other infrastructure.

PDMA spokesperson Anwar Shehzad also told TNN that the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is operational 24/7, and for any kind of assistance or information, the public can contact the helpline at 1700.

Current Situation of Rivers

At Nowshera, the Kabul River has a flood threshold (threshold level) of 2,267 cubic meters per second (m³/s). If the flow exceeds this level, there is a strong likelihood of flooding in the surrounding areas.

At various monitoring points, the current flow levels of the Kabul River are as follows:

Swat River at Chakdara: 557 m³/s

Swat River at Kalam: 273 m³/s

Kunar River at Chitral: 752.2 m³/s

Bara River at Jhansi Post (a location situated on the Kabul River’s tributary): The flood threshold is 22 m³/s

If the water flow at these points increases beyond the mentioned limits, the region may face flood-like conditions.

These threshold levels likely represent the critical points at which water flow can become dangerous or where the risk of flooding significantly increases. The values are used by disaster management and meteorological departments to monitor rising threats and take timely precautions.

Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

On the other hand, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast that most districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to experience cloudy weather and rainfall today. However, some southern districts may continue to have hot and dry conditions.

Meanwhile, thunderstorms, rain, and hail are expected in the following districts:

Upper and central regions: Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Shangla, Buner, Malakand, Nowshera, Mardan, Charsadda, and Peshawar

Western and tribal areas: Khyber, Swabi, Kurram, Orakzai

Southern belt: Kohat, Hangu, Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, and both South and North Waziristan

Residents in these districts are advised to remain alert, especially those in low-lying and flood-prone areas, and to follow updates from official weather and disaster response agencies.

Flood Situation in Swat

Environmental journalist Arif Ahmad, who hails from Swat, has warned that the region is currently trapped in a web of environmental threats due to an abnormal rise in temperatures and intensifying climate conditions. According to a recent warning issued by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), intense rainfall, hailstorms, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are likely to occur in the upper areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Swat.

Currently, there are around 214 small and large glaciers in Swat that are melting rapidly due to rising temperatures and may burst at any time, posing a serious risk of severe flooding.

According to journalist Arif Ahmad, over 400 hotels located in Swat’s tourist regions are built along the banks of rivers, increasing the region’s environmental vulnerability. Despite a history of devastating floods, illegal settlements by influential individuals continue to spring up along the riverbanks, disrupting the natural flow of the Swat River. As the river’s path narrows due to these encroachments, the water often changes its course and destroys nearby populated areas.

Adding to the crisis, the crush machine mafia is causing serious damage to the Swat River by continuously extracting sand and gravel, severely disrupting the river’s natural ecosystem. While an early warning system is in place in Kalam, which alerts upper regions in case of potential threats, its effectiveness is limited to reducing loss of human lives only. Material and financial losses—including the destruction of homes, farmlands, and livestock—remain a grave concern.

On the mitigation and adaptation front, the situation is even more alarming. The work on protective embankments along the Mingora Bypass Road has been facing constant delays, and the performance of the irrigation department is being cited as clear evidence of governmental failure.

Given all these factors, immediate government action is necessary: illegal constructions must be halted, strict action should be taken against the crush mafia, and concrete measures must be implemented to protect the environment.

PDMA and Rescue Efforts

Following the alert issued by the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), District Emergency Officer Nowshera, Malik Ashfaq Hussain, has assured that Rescue 1122 teams in Nowshera are fully prepared to respond to any unpleasant situation. He urged the public to dial Rescue 1122 immediately in case of any emergency or accident.

Context: Pakistan’s Monsoon Flood History

It is important to remember that major floods in Pakistan usually occur during the monsoon season. Since the catastrophic floods of 2010, monsoon rains often turn into full-scale flood disasters. However, the 2022 floods served as a painful reminder of the escalating climate threat: over 30 million people were affected, more than 1,700 lives were lost, and nearly 1 million homes were destroyed, causing an economic loss of approximately 15 billion dollars to Pakistan’s economy.

Global Climate Alarm: 2024 the Hottest Year in History

The year 2024 has been recorded as the hottest year in the history of the world, with the global average temperature rising by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization, January 2025 has been declared the warmest month ever recorded globally.

These developments point clearly toward the intensifying impact of climate change on both a global and national level.