New climate change scenario looks at colder weather for the Netherlands

The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management is quietly investigating a different climate change scenario, in which the weather in the Netherlands might become colder instead of warmer. That has to do with possible changes in the Atlantic Gulf Stream. Experts from TU Delft, the knowledge institute Deltares, and the meteorological institute KNMI are currently mapping out what a cooler climate could mean for the country, Nieuwsuur reported.

“With the knowledge we have now, the most likely scenario is still that it will become warmer. However, this is a new insight that we cannot ignore,” said Delta Commissioner Co Verdaas, who leads the group of experts.

Planet Earth is warming up due to greenhouse gas emissions, which means higher temperatures. It has been known for years that global warming will affect the Atlantic Gulf Stream, with a tiny chance that it will come to a standstill. But in recent years, new climate models have started to show that scenario. Measurements in the sea indicate that the Gulf Stream is already weakening.

The Atlantic Gulf Stream is part of a global system of ocean currents that influence the temperature on land. This system, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), transports warm water from the oceans around the equator to northwestern Europe. That is why the Netherlands, for example, has a much milder climate than Canada, which is located at the same latitude.

If the AMOC comes to a standstill, which the latest models suggest is a possibility, if not a foregone conclusion, it would lead to a radically different climate in the Netherlands and northwestern Europe. More drought, heavier storms, declining agricultural yields, and an even higher rise in sea level are on the cards. The first consequences could be noticeable within the next two decades. It will also change rain patterns elsewhere in the world, causing havoc with food chains, among other things.

“We don’t know for sure whether it will happen, that’s true,” KNMI oceanographer Sybren Drijfhout, who has been studying the Gulf Stream for 30 years, told the program. “We are concerned because five years ago, we thought this was an unlikely disaster scenario. But with the latest climate models, we suddenly see that the chance is really a lot greater.”

It is unclear whether the Gulf Stream shutdown can be prevented, Drijfhout said. “But with more CO2 and greenhouse gases, the chance of this scenario happening increases.”

Other studies are ongoing that should provide a more detailed picture of the consequences of the Gulf Stream shutting down. These publications are expected in the coming months.

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