In 2021, there was nearly a consensus on climate change. In 2025, Carney and Poilievre are far apart

At his first rally of the election campaign, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told his supporters that the Liberal government had driven investment away from Canada by pursuing an agenda of "radical net-zero environmental extremism." 

Days later, at a rally in Fredericton, Poilievre said Liberal Leader Mark Carney was part of "the radical net-zero movement," which, Poilievre suggested, meant "net-zero growth, net-zero jobs, net-zero paycheque."

In the discussion about combating climate change, "net zero" refers to the emissions target the world's nations must collectively achieve to curb the tide of global warming.

When 196 countries negotiated the Paris accords in 2015, they agreed they would aim to limit warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an expert body established by the United Nations, subsequently estimated that global greenhouse gas emissions would need to reach net zero by the middle of this century to stay within that limit  — that is, the total amount of emissions produced by human activities must not exceed the amount that can be absorbed by nature and captured through technology.

According to the UN, 107 countries, including Canada, have made net-zero pledges. In 2021, the leaders of the G7, including former prime minister Justin Trudeau, committed to reach "net zero no later than 2050."

Canada's target was written into law with the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which passed Parliament in 2021. And in the federal election campaign that year, all major parties were committed to pursuing net zero.

"I want to see a made-in-Canada solution for net zero by 2050," said Erin O'Toole, the Conservative Party's leader at the time.

Four years later, the current leader of the Conservative Party is striking a very different tone.

The Conservative campaign did not respond to an email asking whether Poilievre would officially abandon the federal government's net-zero target. Poilievre previously suggested he was waiting until the campaign before he would explain how a Conservative government would combat climate change, but halfway through this campaign he has yet to detail his approach.

At some point in the next two-and-a-half weeks it might become possible to say more about how a Conservative government would reduce Canada's emissions and by how much, but the available evidence suggests the Conservative Party's position on climate policy has shifted markedly from where it was in 2021.

As a result, the Liberals and Conservatives may now be as far apart as they have ever been on the issue — even while the Liberals have arguably moderated their own position.

What the Conservatives wouldn't do

The Conservatives have at least been clear that they oppose a number of the policies implemented or pursued by the Liberal government.

Poilievre has long opposed the consumer carbon tax, of course. But days before this campaign he announced that a Conservative government would also repeal the federal framework for pricing industrial emissions. He also opposes the Liberal government's clean fuel regulations and the proposed cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector. The Conservatives have also criticized the federal government's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales targets and clean electricity regulations.

Pierre Poilievre said a Conservative government would end the industrial carbon tax and the consumer carbon tax — a plan that advocates say would also end any chance of Canada hitting targets to lower emissions.

O'Toole's Conservative platform in 2021 included a consumer carbon price, an industrial price, a ZEV mandate and a low-carbon fuel standard. While O'Toole wouldn't commit to meeting the Liberal government's existing 2030 target for reducing emissions (a 40 per cent reduction below 2005 levels), he did say he would hit the previous Conservative government's target (a 30 per cent reduction below 2005 levels).

Poilievre has so far declined to commit to any domestic target. Asked in March, the Conservative leader said he would treat climate change as a "global problem," pointing to the possibility that liquefied natural gas from Canada could replace the use of coal in India, thus resulting in lower global emissions.

The notion that Canada's exports of LNG could help reduce emissions in other countries is complicated. But at the very least, it does not account for how Canada will reduce its own emissions. And in that respect, the math in front of Poilievre is daunting.

The Canadian Climate Institute estimated last year that the two biggest drivers of emissions reductions in Canada between 2025 and 2030 would be the industrial price and the emissions cap for oil and gas. The consumer carbon tax was estimated to account for eight to 14 per cent of projected emissions reductions.

What do Canadians want?

Carney's decision to abandon the carbon tax leaves that hole in the Liberal carbon plan — though he has also said he would "improve and tighten" the industrial pricing system, provide new financial incentives to households to help reduce their fossil fuel consumption and look at strengthening existing measures like regulations on methane emissions. 

By abandoning the carbon tax — the signature climate policy of Justin Trudeau's time in office — and opening the door to new oil and gas infrastructure, Carney has arguably moderated the Liberal position on climate and energy policy. He might also simply be making concessions to the political and economic pressures of this moment — both the public's concern about the cost of living and the need to respond to the threats posed to this country's sovereignty by Donald Trump. But how precisely the pieces of Carney's vision will fit together is an open question.

Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney says he will abandon his party's consumer carbon tax and replace the policy with an incentive program that rewards Canadians for making green choices.

Poilievre is no doubt influenced by the same concerns — he has framed his opposition to industrial carbon pricing in terms of helping Canadian industry withstand Trump's tariffs.  But where O'Toole seemed to believe the Conservatives needed to present a credible climate plan if they wanted to win enough seats to form government (O'Toole released his climate plan months before the 2021 campaign actually began) Poilievre seems so far to have no such concerns. 

The electoral math may yet work out in Poilievre's favour. Even though the Conservatives are currently trailing the Liberals, they are also still polling at 37 per cent, three points higher than where O'Toole finished in 2021. But the Canadian public also hasn't abandoned the notion of fighting climate change — when Abacus Data asked Canadians in March what a hypothetical Conservative government should do, 77 per cent of respondents said it should "definitely" or "probably" take dealing with climate change seriously. 

When Abacus asked Canadians what a hypothetical Conservative government would do, just 33 per cent of respondents said it "definitely" or "probably" would take dealing with climate change seriously. In that respect, voters who are concerned about climate change might have a distinct choice in this election.

But the divergence between the Conservatives and Liberals also means Canada does not have the kind of bipartisan consensus on climate change that can help ensure policies are durable and sustainable. That is a challenge that may live on, regardless of who forms government.