EU delays 2040 climate target release until ‘before summer’

The European Commission is delaying the release of the bloc’s 2040 climate target until “before summer” while Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra struggles to find support for the pledge to slash emissions.

Speaking to a small group of journalists on Thursday, Hoekstra confirmed POLITICO reporting that he has faced concerns from EU capitals and political groups in the European Parliament and discussed ways to water down the EU’s plan to cut emissions 90 percent below 1990 levels by 2040.

The Commission had originally promised to release a draft law in the first quarter of 2025.

“Clearly we need a bit more time,” said Hoekstra, adding he would need “weeks or months” to find a majority for the legal proposal. He said he wanted to see it done “before summer.”

“Truly significant things in our democracies ideally you do with very, very substantial majorities and you take into account all the ambition but also all the questions or ramifications that people voice,” he said.

Asked whether the 90 percent target itself was under threat, Hoekstra would only say that it remained the Commission’s “starting point” and that he was “optimistic” that it would remain the final target.

“I also want to make sure that we are sensitive to requests for a bit of pragmatism,” he said.

Hoekstra said he would spend the coming weeks consulting with European capitals and groups in Parliament in order to build a “solid majority” for the goal.

The 90 percent goal was first proposed by the Commission last year and it has been a firm commitment of the executive’s president, Ursula von der Leyen. 

“Delaying the publication of the 2040 target is breaking the Commission's clear commitment to Parliament,” said Tiemo Wölken, an MEP from the Socialists & Democrats political grouping. “This decision seriously undermines the trust we as a group can have in the Commission.”

The goal has been criticized by some within von der Leyen and Hoekstra’s center-right European People's Party — the largest political group in the European Parliament, which holds the swing vote. 

Some European governments have also rebelled, with Italy’s hard-right government openly calling for the target to be reduced to 80 or 85 percent. The EU’s independent board of scientists has recommended a feasible goal between 90 and 95 percent.

“The science, not least the EU's own advisory board, has been crystal-clear: 90 percent is actually at the lower end of what would be Europe's fair share of emissions reductions by 2040. We therefore firmly oppose any further watering down or delays,” said Wölken.

POLITICO reported Monday that Hoekstra had been consulting with groups in the European Parliament on several “flexibilities” that might ease concerns over the 90 percent target.

These included using international carbon credits to count toward the EU goal, allowing for a trajectory that saw slower cuts at the beginning of the 2030s and increasing the allowance for forests and nascent technologies that remove carbon from the air.

“I can only speculate that Mr. Hoekstra is doing this to bring some more bad ideas into the target design — such as the inclusion of [international carbon] credits,” said Wölken. “This would open up tremendous loopholes instead of enabling emissions reductions at home.”

Greens MEPs have also told POLITICO they would reject the use of these credits, which would fund climate projects overseas and allow EU countries to count the reduced emissions toward their own targets.

Hoekstra said the trade war, unleashed overnight by U.S. President Donald Trump, would have further detrimental impacts on the climate effort.

“What that clearly does is [it's] making a very difficult geopolitical context even more difficult, making a not easy economic context even more difficult and putting pressure on the whole system of international cooperation,” he said, but added that “regardless of the trade conversation with all its ramifications we can pursue the trajectory I had already embarked on.”

The 2040 climate target has a major bearing on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference in Brazil later this year. All countries are due to submit goals for 2035 before that summit and the EU’s target is viewed as a benchmark to pressure other large emitters, especially China.

Hoekstra would only say that he was “optimistic” that the EU would meet a revised U.N. deadline of September. 

“Beyond the reputational damage to Europe's status as a climate leader, this also puts the UNFCCC process at risk,” said Wölken.