Climate observatory with edge over satellites faces DOGE ax

Climate observatory with edge over satellites faces DOGE ax

In 1958, scientist Charles David Keeling began monitoring carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, providing the first clear evidence that humans were increasing atmospheric CO2 by burning fossil fuels.

Keeling had devised a simple way to collect clean air samples in glass flasks. He then used newly available liquid nitrogen and later infrared technology to figure out the amount of CO2 in the sample.

The groundbreaking work helped shape modern climate science, and the observatory is still one of the world's key stations for continuous monitoring of atmospheric CO2.

But scientists fear that work could soon be halted, ripping "a big hole in our scientific knowledge about Earth's greenhouse gases," said Noel Cressie, who directs the Center for Environmental Informatics at Australia's University of Wollongong.
Charles Keeling (pictured) evacuating a glass jar to make kind of vacuum capable of collecting a clean sample of airImage: UC Regents

The US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is considering shuttering offices in Hilo, Hawaii, where staff oversee the observatory's daily operations. The lease amounts to $164,391 (€149,050) annually, said the cost-cutting bodyled by Tesla billionaire Elon Musk.

The offices are run by the climate and ocean monitoring agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which itself has been a major target of DOGE cuts.

International scientists warn that the loss to global climate research would be huge if the observatory closes.

Mauna Loa has "an incredible data record about how things interact in the atmosphere," said Cressie, pointing to its measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide — greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

CO2 monitoring satellites "do their best," but what Mauna Loa contributes is "irreplaceable by satellites," he said.
Why is Mauna Loa so important to climate science?

Charles David Keeling considered Mauna Loa a prime location to measure atmospheric CO2. Much in the way a doctor knows where the right spot is to measure a person's temperature to get the best reading, said his son, Ralph Keeling.

At just over 4,100 meters (13,451 feet) above sea level, the observatory is in an ocean environment far from "things that can influence carbon dioxide," said the physicist, who oversees the Mauna Loa project from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.

By that Ralph Keeling means sources of CO2 such as fossil-fuel burning cars as well as big ecosystems like forests that regularly absorb and release the gas. It's one of only two stations working in that kind of environment. The other is in Tasmania, Australia.


His father's work revealed natural CO2 fluctuations over days and seasons — such as the uptake of CO2 by plants in spring and its release during fall when vegetation decays. Significantly, his data showed a relentless rise in atmospheric CO2 levels, depicted in the famous Keeling Curve.

When the elder Keeling began his measurements in 1958, CO2 levels were around 315 parts per million. Now, they're at 427 ppm. CO2 makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere, which is a lot less than oxygen, for instance, at 21%.

That may not sound like much. But CO2 has an outsized impact in the same way that "cholesterol is only a tiny component of your blood, but it has special properties, so it matters how much you have," said Ralph Keeling.

One of CO2's important special properties is that it traps heat radiating from Earth's surface. So even a seemingly small increase will cause global average temperature rises significant enough to fuel the melting of the polar ice caps, rising sea levels, and extreme weather.

No 'alternative data sources'

Losing Mauna Loa would mean losing data from "a region of the world for which we don't have other alternative data sources," Josep Canadell, executive director of the UK-based Global Carbon Project, wrote DW in an email.

Without it, researchers would need to rely more heavily on remote sensing by satellite to monitor greenhouse gases, which presents challenges.

One issue is that the earliest data from those doesn't go back nearly as far, said Noel Cressie, who works with scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory on its Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 mission, which launched in 2014.
Humans are releasing CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels such as coalImage: S. Ziese/blickwinkel/IMAGO

Long-term data sets are vital for scientists' understanding of how Earth's systems are responding to rising CO2 emissions over time. Breaking the world's longest continuous measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa would make it harder to track such trends.

CO2 monitoring satellites are also less precise. They're high up in the atmosphere and "aerosols and clouds are spoiling the view," said Noel Cressie. Using them requires a lot of measurement calibration to get more accurate readings — something that isn't needed with Mauna Loa.

"The global coverage of satellites is definitely an advantage, but multiple satellites are needed to replicate the variety of Mauna Loa measurements, and they have difficulty looking down at exactly the same location on Earth's surface," he added.

Mauna Loa, on the other hand, measures a variety of greenhouse gases and has instruments in a fixed location, "making those measurements incredibly accurate."
Hilo office lease expires in August

According to a March congressional letter demanding clarification from US President Donald Trump's administration about impending cuts to NOAA, the lease for the Hilo offices expires at the end of August. It remains unclear what it would mean for the overall project if DOGE cancels the lease.

But if Mauna Loa were halted, it "would have a disproportionate impact compared to the losses of any other observatory," wrote Josep Canadell.

It would be "one of the worst losses of environmentally significant data tracking the dynamics and health of planet Earth," he added.

Canadell expressed further concerns about the possibility of the US shuttering its wider network of observatories tracking greenhouse gases.

The US makes "the largest contribution to the global networks that any single country makes."

Tracking CO2 and its influence on the climate is crucial for preparing for more super-charged weather and other consequences of climate change, said Ralph Keeling.

"We have to get ready for all this," said Keeling.