Climate leadership at a critical time

China's strong show of support is a boost to global climate action

At the Leaders Meeting on Climate and the Just Transition held recently, major countries from the Global North and the Global South came together to jointly establish that they're not giving up on climate action.

The virtual summit was organized by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil. Important world leaders spoke, including President Xi Jinping of China, President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission and leaders of countries most vulnerable to climate change.

The virtual summit couldn't have been more timely. The 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest later this year, marking 10 years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. With the multilateral system buckling under unilateral actions and tariff shocks, all countries are actively reassessing their dependencies and priorities in the international order, as well as trade and investment relationships, and ways to ensure military and energy security.

With so many threats and competing priorities, it can be easy to lose faith in the global response to climate change. But future expectations around climate action are critical in how the world actually develops, as the planning and investment decisions made today could either lock in harmful emissions or support climate action. Certain investments in fossil fuel infrastructure may appear profitable today, but could easily become stranded assets if countries decide on the need to step up climate action, or if fossil technologies are outcompeted by renewables.

China's experience is showing that green sectors can be a huge business opportunity. UN Secretary-General Guterres underscored this point, saying renewable energy production is "the economic opportunity of the century", and "no group or government can stop the clean energy revolution".

A few weeks from now, the European Union and China will celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations. Throughout the past decade, the joint commitment on climate action has been critical in global climate governance. Working for a European environmental NGO based in China, I have had the pleasure to witness firsthand the in-depth and fruitful cooperation on climate and environment between the two sides. The 50th anniversary will be an excellent time to reaffirm and further deepen EU-China climate relations.

Just as important for climate action are the relations among countries in the Global South, especially large emerging economies. These countries need to determine their economic development pathways, and have an opportunity to build up green industries and infrastructure, strategically positioning themselves for a low-carbon future. As climate change is warming the world faster than was previously anticipated, all countries must now also step up climate adaptation, to make their economies more resilient to a world characterized by frequent extreme weather events.

In the days before the virtual summit, André Corrêa do Lago, president-elect of COP30, visited Beijing. His visit underscores the importance Brazil attached to the virtual summit, and is a strong sign that Brazil and China, as two of the largest economies in the Global South, continue to attach great importance to global climate governance.

The speech President Xi gave at the virtual summit contains a lot of important substance. First of all, the Chinese president called on countries to adhere to multilateralism and an international order underpinned by international law. As events in the last months have shown, international law and justice cannot be taken for granted. Without this legal foundation, the UNFCCC, and even the UN system, would be meaningless, and therefore adherence to international law is absolutely key to global climate governance.

Second, he called for international cooperation, and for countries to "facilitate the free flow of quality green technologies and products, so that they can be accessible, affordable and beneficial for all countries, especially the developing ones". In this sense, tariffs or other barriers would hamper trade in such technologies, and could disrupt their supply chains.

He also committed China to vigorously deepen South-South cooperation and continue to provide help for fellow developing countries to the best of its capability.

Finally, President Xi promised that China will announce its 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions "covering all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", before COP30 in Belém, Brazil. This is very exciting news. Sector-specific targets will offer much greater predictability for businesses in each of those sectors, giving them a clear roadmap for their transition toward low-carbon technologies. Covering all greenhouse gases is important too — especially as methane emissions have been shown to contribute to more warming than was previously assumed.

On top of ensuring the free flow of green technologies, now is a critical time for China to maximize joint ventures for the manufacturing of green technologies in other emerging economies. To ensure speed and scale in the global climate transition, climate-friendly technologies should be produced all around the world. Sharing business opportunities, employment and technological capacities can also provide a boost to the political support for the climate transition in those countries, and reduce the likelihood of trade frictions.

In line with President Xi's emphasis on the rule of law, we propose that all countries, including China, should proceed to draft and adopt framework climate laws. Such a legal basis forms the foundation for achieving climate objectives in an orderly, rapid and fair manner, and benefits all sectors of society throughout the transition. China has remarkably powerful systems for environmental rule of law — it has already established specialized environmental courts at all levels, and even has thousands of public interest prosecutors bringing cases to protect the environment. Robust systems will be needed to ensure that newly built coal-fired power plants in China do not result in an increase in total emissions, and that emissions are brought down as soon as possible, providing a smooth and low-cost trajectory toward carbon neutrality before 2060.

Developed countries must not shy away from their responsibilities under the UNFCCC. They should take the lead in addressing climate change, step up their climate transition and create green jobs, and provide the required financial support to enable climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.

The call from the UN, Brazil, China, the EU and vulnerable countries is clear: The world is gearing up for climate action, and countries and businesses around the world should prepare themselves for a future in which the low carbon economy rules.