Climate change can impact food production, economy: Prof Bijoykumar

 Climate change can impact food production, economy: Prof Bijoykumar

Climate change can significantly impact the economy of a region by causing disruption to agricultural production due to extreme weather events; damage infrastructure from rising sea levels, cyclones and flood; impact labour productivity from extreme heat; and spike costs for adaptation measures, leading to economic loses.

Manipur University Department of Economics retired professor E Bijoykumar accentuated the issue during a technical session of the media workshpp on "Media as Force Multiplier-For Climate Action" jointly organised by Editors' Guild Manipur in collaboration with Directorate of Environment and Climate Change at Classic Grande, Chingmeirong, here.

Climate change can impact food production, economy: Prof Bijoykumar

While deliberating on the topic "Impact of Climate Change on Economy", professor Bijoykumar pointed out that the average temperature of the earth's surface is now about 1.2°C warmer than it was in the late 1800s (before the industrial revolution) and warmer than at any time in the last 100,000 years.

The last decade (2011-20) was the warmest on record and each of the last four decades has been warmer than any previous decade since 1850 .

In a series of UN reports, thousands of scientists and government reviewers agreed that limiting global temperature rise to not more than 1.5'C would help us avoid the worst climate impacts and maintain a liveable climate.

Yet, policies currently in place suggest a rise of up to 3.1 °C by the end of the century, he remarked.

The professor observed that the frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world, adding that these trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate.

As most of the developing economies depend heavily on the primary sector which also critically depends on temperature and precipitation, any abnormal and irregular changes in these climate indicators will affect the activities of the agricultural sector.

Specifically, climate change is expected to impact farmland and labour productivity as well as food security for several decades, even if mitigation measures are implemented now.

Climate change can reduce food production by directly altering agro ecological conditions; indirectly affecting demand for agricultural products, income distribution, and economic growth; and reducing the availability of suitable land for agriculture, explained the professor, who attended the recent workshop as one of the resource persons.

Highlighting that usable agricultural lands are shrinking due to population growth and climate change, Bijoykumar said that the same can significantly constrain food production and consumption in future resulting in millions of people, particularly in under-developed and developing countries to face extreme hunger, severe undernourishment and income reduction.

It has been projected that by 2050 under no-climate-change scenario, most regions in the world will experience more than a 50 per cent reduction in the number of people at risk of hunger, a global total of around 406 million.

But the number will rise by 70 million by 2050 under climate change scenario, he added.

Due to climate change the incomes of poor rural people will decline by 20.4 percent by 2050, compared with the no-climate-change scenario, while non-poor rural residents will see a 20.8 percent reduction.

Incomes will fall by 20 percent by 2050 for poor urban residents and by 18.2 percent for nonpoor urban residents, he highlighted.

Explaining how climate change impacts hydrological cycles (IPCC, 1996), the resource person said that it is likely to create a greater need for water as surface and groundwater levels diminish over time.

Globally, hydrological cycles are shifting, creating drier days, severe floods, erratic rainfall patterns, and accelerated melting of glaciers.

Increasing temperature leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow.

"This is likely to lead to a subsequent reduction in the duration of snowfall in many areas of the world.

Therefore, stream flows; including their timing, in such regions would be negatively affected" .

Stressing that climate change is known to be linked to multiple health issues, including respiratory diseases, heart disease and stroke, water- and food-related illnesses, poor mental health, and pest-related diseases, he said that between 2030 and 2050, approximately 250,000 people are expected to die from climate change-related health issues such as malnutrition, malaria, heat stress, and diarrhoea (WHO, 2021) .

Developing countries with weak health systems and infrastructure will suffer the most from the health effects of climate change, the professor cautioned.

Climate change may also force the pace of rural-urban migration which could turn the ongoing agrarian crisis in rural areas of India into a migratory route, driven by increase in extreme weather events, greater monsoon variability, endemic drought, and flooding and resource conflicts, professor Bijoykumar asserted.