Climate modeling study: Rise in heat deaths will substantially outweigh fewer cold deaths

Climate change will likely result in a significant rise in deaths from heat across Europe, substantially surpassing any decrease in cold-related deaths. This trend persists across climate change scenarios and even under high adaptation to heat, reinforcing the need for aggressive mitigation policies.

A modeling study, led by researchers from the Environment & Health Modeling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in Nature Medicine, estimates that changes to the climate could directly result in over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099 if urgent action is not taken to cut carbon emissions. However, up to 70% of these deaths could be prevented if rapid action is taken.

The study suggests that even if enormous efforts were made to adapt cities to changing temperatures, this would not be enough to balance increased health risks due to exposure to heat, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe, and the Balkans. Only swift cuts to carbon emissions that keep temperatures down were shown to reduce the number of extreme heat deaths.

Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author at the EHM-Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said, "Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire. But, by following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century."

According to the modeling study, the 10 European cities projected to see the highest temperature-related death tolls by the end of the century are:

Barcelona (Spain) 246,082
Rome (Italy) 147,738
Naples (Italy) 147,248
Madrid (Spain) 129,716
Milan (Italy) 110,131
Athens (Greece) 87,523
Valencia (Spain) 67,519
Marseille (France) 51,306
Bucharest (Romania) 47,468
Genoa (Italy) 36,338

[Note: Numbers represent projected cumulative increase in temperature-related deaths by 2099 due to climate change]

Due to their larger populations, the highest numbers of temperature-related deaths are projected in the most populous Mediterranean cities, but many smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are also likely to be badly affected with high temperature-related death rates.

Away from the Mediterranean region, impacts are expected to be less severe, with other European capitals such as Paris (13,515) projected to see a smaller, but still significant, increase in cumulative cold and heat deaths.

On the other hand, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries could see a net decrease in deaths, one being London (-27,455). This lower death toll would, however, be massively outweighed by the increases in the rest of Europe, resulting in 2.3 million additional deaths across the whole of Europe.

Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the article and lead of the EHM-Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said, "This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe. These results debunk proposed theories of 'beneficial' effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible."

This research uses risk functions of temperature in all cities, accounting for local and age-specific adaptation and acclimatization. These are combined with projections of temperatures, population, and death rates to estimate expected temperature-related death tolls that can be attributed specifically to changing temperatures.

The researchers considered a range of climate and epidemiological simulations to assess the uncertainty associated with the estimates, under scenarios defined for the IPCC sixth assessment report. The researchers additionally computed death tolls for scenarios in which the risk of mortality related to heat is reduced.

Adaptation scenarios devised in this research inform on the degree of risk reduction needed but remain abstract and do not inform on specific action to be taken. Additionally, this research focuses on daily mean temperature and does not account for specific weather events that could modify the estimated death toll, such as extreme nighttime temperatures and humid conditions.

이 블로그의 인기 게시물

Non-contact exposure to dinotefuran disrupts honey bee homing by altering MagR and Cry2 gene expression

Non-contact exposure to dinotefuran disrupts honey bee homing by altering MagR and Cry2 gene expression Dinotefuran is known to negatively affect honeybee ( Apis mellifera ) behavior, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. The magnetoreceptor ( MagR , which responds to magnetic fields) and cryptochrome ( Cry2 , which is sensitive to light) genes are considered to play important roles in honey bees’ homing and localization behaviors. Our study found that dinotefuran, even without direct contact, can act like a magnet, significantly altering MagR expression in honeybees. This non-contact exposure reduced the bees’ homing rate. In further experiments, we exposed foragers to light and magnetic fields, the MagR gene responded to magnetic fields only in the presence of light, with Cry 2 playing a key switching role in the magnetic field receptor mechanism ( MagR–Cry2 ). Yeast two-hybrid and BiFc assays confirmed an interactio...

New Report – Interlocked: Midwives and the Climate Crisis

New Report – Interlocked: Midwives and the Climate Crisis Earlier this year, midwives from 41 countries shared their experiences of working in communities affected by climate change through our survey, Midwives’ Experiences and Perspectives on Climate Change. Their voices shaped our new report, Interlocked: Midwives and the Climate Crisis , which highlights how midwives are already responding to the health impacts of climate disasters like floods, wildfires, and extreme heat—and why they must be included in climate action plans. What did we learn?Climate change is damaging community health: 75% of midwives reported that climate change is harming the communities they serve, with rising rates of preterm births, food insecurity, and restricted access to care during disasters like floods. Midwives are critical first responders: Midwives are often the first and only healthcare providers on the ground in crises, delivering care during wildfires, floods, and extreme heat. Midwives face signi...

Bee attack claims life of newspaper distributor

Bee attack claims life of newspaper distributor Newspaper distributor Pushparaja Shetty (45), who sustained severe injuries in a bee attack, succumbed to his injuries on Thursday at a hospital in Mangaluru. Pushparaja was attacked by a swarm of bees on Wednesday morning while walking at Kenjaru Taangadi under Bajpe town panchayat limits. He was immediately admitted to a hospital for treatment but could not survive the ordeal. Fondly known as ‘Boggu’ in the Porkodi area, Pushparaja was well-known for his dedication to delivering newspapers on foot to every household. He was admired for his generosity, as he often distributed sweets to schoolchildren on Independence Day using his own earnings and contributed part of his income to the betterment of society. Pushparaja was unmarried and is survived by three brothers and one sister.

“Global honey crisis”: Testing technology and local sourcing soars amid fraud and tampering concerns

“Global honey crisis”: Testing technology and local sourcing soars amid fraud and tampering concerns The World Beekeeping Awards will not grant a prize for honey next year due to the “inability” to thoroughly test honey for adulteration. The announcement comes amid the rise of honey fraud in the EU, where a 2023 investigation found that 46% of 147 honey samples tested were likely contaminated with low-cost plant syrups. Apimondia, the International Federation of Beekeepers’ Associations, organizes the event at its Congress, whose 49th edition will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in September 2025. The conference brings together beekeepers, scientists and other stakeholders. “We will celebrate honey in many ways at the Congress, but honey will no longer be a category, and thus, there will be no honey judging in the World Beekeeping Awards. The lessons learned from Canada 2019 and Chile 2023 were that adequate testing was impossible if we are to award winning honey at the Con...

Unveiling the Canopy's Secrets: New Bee Species Discovered in the Pacific

Unveiling the Canopy's Secrets: New Bee Species Discovered in the Pacific In an exciting development for environmentalists and beekeeping experts, researchers have discovered eight new species of masked bees in the Pacific Islands, shining a light on the rich biodiversity hidden within the forest canopy. This discovery underscores the critical role bees play in our ecosystems and the pressing need for conservation efforts to protect these vital pollinators. A New Frontier in Bee Research By exploring the forest canopy, scientists have opened a new frontier in bee research, revealing species that have adapted to life high above the ground. These discoveries are crucial for understanding the complex relationships between bees, flora, and the broader ecosystem. The new species of masked bees, characterized by their striking black bodies with yellow or white highlights, particularly on their faces, rely exclusively on the forest canopy for survival. The Importance of Bee Conservation...

Start the New Year Humming Like a Bee

Start the New Year Humming Like a Bee There are lots of opportunities to be as busy as a bee during these winter holidays. As we hustle toward the dawn of the New Year, it can be hard to notice that the natural world is actually suggesting something different for us right now. We’re past the solstice, but the winter still stretches ahead, the days are still short and the nights long. We’re being invited into a quieter, more inner-focused time. The ancient yogis were all about this inner focus. In India, for example, the Upanishads, the Sanskrit writings that accompanied the development of Hinduism — and alongside it, yoga — beginning around 800 B.C.E., went deeper than earlier texts had into philosophy and questions of being. With the goals of increased inner awareness and higher consciousness, yoga was at that time not yet as focused on the body or on asanas, as it now can tend to be. But the yogis did develop many practices to try to open the way to those goals. They discovered...

The Essential Role of Bees in Our Ecosystem and the Challenges They Face

The Essential Role of Bees in Our Ecosystem and the Challenges They Face Bees have been an integral part of our ecosystem and human agriculture for over four centuries, primarily utilized for their honey in the early days. Now, they are recognized more for their critical role in pollination, which directly impacts a vast majority of the food we consume. Mark Lilly, a prominent beekeeper, emphasizes that without bees' pollination efforts, a significant portion of our diet would be at risk. However, bees face numerous threats, including varroa mites and, in specific regions like West Virginia, black bears. These challenges necessitate concerted efforts for preservation and protection. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: Why are bees so important to the ecosystem? A1: Bees are crucial for pollinating plants, which is necessary for the production of fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Without bees, a large portion of the food we eat would not be available. Q2: What are the main threats to...

The Growing Dilemma of Pet Burials in South Korea: Environmental and Legal Hurdles

The Growing Dilemma of Pet Burials in South Korea: Environmental and Legal Hurdles As the number of pets in South Korea steadily increases, pet owners face a growing dilemma due to the limited number of pet cemeteries across the country. Under the current legal framework, pet remains are classified as household waste, requiring specific disposal methods that are neither convenient nor easily accessible for all citizens. The imbalance between the rising pet population—over 5.52 million households with pets by the end of 2022—and the mere 70 registered pet cemeteries has led to significant challenges. This shortage is particularly evident in regions like Jeju Island, where pet owners must undergo arduous journeys to the mainland to ensure their pets receive proper burials. The root cause of this shortage lies in the strict regulations governing the establishment of pet cemeteries. These facilities, which must include crematoriums, face numerous restrictions, such as proximity to resident...

Climate Crisis Claims Glacier's Vital Climate Data Archive

Climate Crisis Claims Glacier's Vital Climate Data Archive A recent study published in Nature Geoscience reveals a distressing consequence of global warming: the irreversible loss of valuable climate data stored in alpine glaciers. The research, conducted by a team led by Margit Schwikowski from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), underscores the alarming rate at which glaciers are melting and highlights the implications for climate research. The study focuses on the Corbassière glacier at Grand Combin in Switzerland, where ice cores drilled in 2018 and 2020 were intended to serve as vital climate archives. However, comparing the two sets of ice cores reveals a grim reality—global warming has rendered the glacier unsuitable as a reliable climate archive. Glaciers, renowned as climate archives, encapsulate valuable information about past climatic conditions and atmospheric compositions. The fluctuating concentrations of trace substances in ice layers provide insights into historica...

German election: Climate and environment take a back seat

German election: Climate and environment take a back seat When the coalition government comprising the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) , Greens and neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) emerged after the last German federal election in the fall of 2021, then-incoming Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) did not object to being called the "climate chancellor." That was no surprise: the climate crisis had been a top issue during the election campaign. The new government made the fight against climate change a task for the Economy Ministry and appointed Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens as its head. Three and a half years later, campaign speeches barely mention climate protection. The dominant issues are how to curb irregular immigration and how to boost Germany's sluggish economy. Skeptical view of renewable energy The head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) , Friedrich Merz ...

Small actions make a big difference engilsh dkbee.com

이 블로그 검색