How Leaders Map their way to Climate Resilience

Here is an economic reality: climate-related economic losses in the European Union1 have amounted to €738bn since 1980. Remarkably, 22 per cent of those losses have happened in the last three years.

Globally, leaders in government and industry are seeking intelligent responses to an increasingly volatile environment. At the heart of these solutions is a universe of climate data and spatial analytics.

A fusion of climate modeling and geographic information system (GIS) technology is making risk assessments more accurate, mitigation strategies more effective, and pathways to resilience more clear.

It is how the largest telecom in the world can predict how weather conditions might affect their infrastructure – present day, in three years and in 30 years. The company views GIS climate models for high winds and flood waters layered with location data for their assets and infrastructure.

With remarkable precision, GIS maps and analysis pinpoint vulnerabilities in a way stakeholders can understand and address. During one storm, the models successfully predicted that a central office built on a slope would partially flood. Knowing they had to secure only low ground entry points saved crews valuable time.

Reverberations of shifting climates

Even the smallest climate deviations can devastate an industry. In European wine country, for example, winemakers are monitoring how growing conditions will likely change due to persistent heat, drought, flooding or pests by looking to predictive GIS climate models and maps. Some believe2 that the next great chardonnay will emerge from southern England, and they have the science to back it up.

With the window to harvest shorter than ever, winemakers have fine-tuned cultivation approaches to accommodate changing humidity levels and soil profiles. Instead of repeatedly trekking into the vineyards, they monitor dozens of estates – hundreds of kilometres apart – with high-resolution aerial photography. It’s the type of precision agriculture that’s possible with GIS technology. And at harvest time, winemakers zoom into close-up images of grape clusters to know exactly when to pick.

Tailor-made insurance policies to weather storms

With natural disasters on the rise and asset replacement costs mounting, insurers face a delicate choice – get out of certain areas or get better risk visibility.

In Cambodia, where farmers make 35 per cent of the country's GDP3, insurance coverage can be too expensive for individual growers. This makes a big industry and the economy it supports vulnerable.

Rising to the challenge, global insurers use GIS-based predictive analytics to offer customised coverage at hyperlocal levels. Aerial and satellite photography analysed with machine learning techniques gives insurers a way to understand structures and land in detail and at scale. This means they can assess risk on a more individualised basis instead of issuing blanket policies over swaths of remote farmland.

For example, insurers can compare a building's age and materials to what kind of damage it might face in a storm. Or they can look at how much water a farm uses each year and see how that affects the crops during hot and dry periods.

When insurance companies make this data transparent, they also incentivise landowners to improve resilience by clearing dry brush or planting riparian buffer zones.

A seaport simulates its future

At Port Prince Rupert in western Canada – a crucial natural resources gateway known for challenging weather and earthquakes – port managers are planning for resilience. They are using an advanced type of GIS modelling known as a geospatial digital twin. This precise 3D replica of the bustling seaport and surrounding trade zone visualises hundreds of real-time data points: environmental information, marine traffic, infrastructure conditions and trade statistics.

By adding climate risk data to the digital twin, they expose potential impacts to shipping routes and port operations. With factors like rising sea levels and storm surge projections in view, cost-benefit calculations for capital infrastructure projects take on a new dimension. Port managers use this level of analysis to make decisions about where to invest resources and prioritise maintenance or upgrades.

The real and long-term climate impacts that the planet is facing cannot be wished away. Climate risks must be assessed, and mitigation and adaptation strategies must be put to action. Society has the science, data and technology to help make it happen.