AI Exposes Accelerated Climate Change: 3°C Temperature Rise Imminent

AI-enhanced research shows regional warming will exceed critical thresholds faster than expected, with most regions surpassing 1.5°C by 2040. Vulnerable areas like South Asia face heightened risks, urging swift adaptation actions.

Three leading climate scientists have analyzed data from 10 global climate models, utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance accuracy. Their findings indicate that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached sooner than previously estimated.

Published in Environmental Research Letters by IOP Publishing, the study projects that most land regions, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are likely to surpass the critical 1.5°C warming threshold by 2040 or earlier. Additionally, several regions are expected to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by 2060—significantly earlier than previous estimates suggested.

Regions including South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to reach these thresholds faster, compounding risks for vulnerable ecosystems and communities.

The research, conducted by Elizabeth Barnes, professor at Colorado State University, Noah Diffenbaugh, professor at Stanford University, and Sonia Seneviratne, professor at the ETH-Zurich, used a cutting-edge AI transfer-learning approach, which integrates knowledge from multiple climate models and observations to refine previous estimates and deliver more accurate regional predictions.

Key Findings

Using AI-based transfer learning, the researchers analyzed data from 10 different climate models to predict temperature increases and found:

• 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
• 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.
• 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

Elizabeth Barnes says: “Our research underscores the importance of incorporating innovative AI techniques like transfer learning into climate modeling to potentially improve and constrain regional forecasts and provide actionable insights for policymakers, scientists, and communities worldwide.”

Noah Diffenbaugh, co-author and professor at Stanford University, added: “It is important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. By constraining when regional warming thresholds will be reached, we can more clearly anticipate the timing of specific impacts on society and ecosystems. The challenge is that regional climate change can be more uncertain, both because the climate system is inherently more noisy at smaller spatial scales and because processes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface create uncertainty about exactly how a given region will respond to global-scale warming.”

Reference: “Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached” by Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh and Sonia I Seneviratne, 10 December 2024, Environmental Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca