2025 climate forecast warns of winter danger

2025 climate forecast warns of winter danger – but not the cold kind

Wildfires may be in the news again this winter across the southern tier of the U.S. as drought persists and expands across the region, experts told USA TODAY.

"Fire is probably the biggest danger going into winter," climatologist and drought expert Brian Fuchs told USA TODAY in an email in mid-December.

Long-promised La Niña conditions are still expected to develop – perhaps as early as January – which typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said. As a result, forecasters expect drought conditions to persist and worsen across the southern U.S.

"The places to watch will definitely be the Southwest, Southeast and how much of the southern Plains ends up reverting back into drought over the next several months." said Fuchs, of the National Drought Mitigation Center.

People walk along a Brooklyn promenade at sunset as much of the Northeast experiences drought conditions on November 15, 2024, in New York City.

How much of the US is in a drought?

Overall, 38.9% of the contiguous U.S. is in drought, which is down about 13% since early November, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, out Thursday.

Looking ahead, other than the risk for wildfires, "drought impacts are typically less pronounced during the winter, but some longer-term hydrology issues remain, including below-normal soil moisture and streamflow, particularly across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois," according to a report on Drought.gov.

"Dry wells and low springs continue to be an issue in southeast Ohio, and low farm ponds are a problem in northwest Ohio," the report said.

Drought is expected to develop across the southern tier of the U.S. (in yellow) over the next few months.

Southern dryness

"I think the big picture is shaping up that the La Niña winter we are expecting will bring more dryness to the southern portions of the U.S., with new drought development likely (through the end of March 2025) from Arizona into central and northeast Texas along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast (including Florida)," Fuchs said.

He added that many of the precipitation numbers were “skewed” in the Southeast and Florida from the tropical storms and hurricanes earlier in the fall, but the dryness has been building up since. "I expect to see more drought through the winter and into early spring."

Some good news: He said the drought in the Midwest into the Northeast looks to be an area, along with the Northern Rocky Mountains, where we may see improvements and even see drought end in places.

What was most noteworthy about drought in the US in 2024?

"For one, just the amount of the country covered by drought," Fuchs said. "We started off with about 30% of the country in drought in January, was as low as 12% but then peaked at 54% of the U.S. in drought back in October. The drought in the Midwest and Northeast was something that we had not seen in a while, especially in the Northeast. Also the dryness that dominated much of the country in October allowed for drought to expand and intensify rapidly."

In November, New York City declared its first drought warning in 22 years due to the lack of rain. That designation was lifted this week as the rains have since returned.

As far as records set for drought or dryness, for the overall drought and abnormally dry conditions, "in October we had 87.16% of the country as abnormally dry or worse, which was a new record, surpassing November 2022."

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