Revolutionary change, not climate change!

 Revolutionary change, not climate change!

The catastrophe of climate change is upon us. It is a potentially existential crisis, if not for our species as a whole, certainly for human civilization and life on Earth as we know it. The facts are as sobering as they are undeniable.

Although our planet has passed through eight cycles of warming and cooling over the last 800,000 years, most of this can be attributed to minor fluctuations in the Earth’s orbit, affecting the amount of solar energy absorbed. The most recent cycle of warming is different. Not only is it occurring at the fastest rate since the last Ice Age ended 11,700 years ago, but according to the IPCC: “Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.”

Most of the warming has occurred over the last 40 years, and the ten warmest years on record have all happened in the past decade. In fact, paleoclimate evidence shows that today’s warming is ten times faster than the average rate after a typical ice age. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are now at the highest levels in human history. Little wonder that heat-related mortality has increased by around 30% in the past 20 years—and worse is yet to come.

As billions around the world couldn’t help but notice, 2023 was the hottest year on record. According to NOAA, average global temperatures were 1.18 degrees Celsius, higher than any other year since records began in 1850. 2024 is set to surpass records yet again, with May of this year the twelfth straight hottest month on record.

As NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment highlights, “Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year.” As a result, global sea levels have risen about eight inches over the last century, with the rate in the last two decades nearly double that of the last century.

Of course, the planet as such is not bothered by these changes. But what does this mean for the eight billion humans and countless plant and animal species living on its surface?

As many as 10,000 species go extinct every year—from microscopic organisms to large plants and animals—1,000 times faster than historic extinction rates. Even the loss of “minor” species can have an outsized effect on entire ecosystems, throwing them into disequilibrium.

Based on current calculations, yields of maize crops are projected to decline by 24% by the end of the century. Meanwhile, over 1.6 billion people depend on maize as a staple food. According to NASA, even under the most optimistic mitigation scenarios, global agriculture must contend with a new reality: “With the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide.”

War and imperialism also have an exacerbating effect, and not only because the US military is the world’s number one polluter.

As an example, during the first Gulf War, 700 Kuwaiti oil fields were set on fire, with the smoke stretching for 800 miles. Eleven million barrels of crude oil poured into the Persian Gulf, and nearly 300 oil lakes formed on the surface of the desert. Thirty years later, over 90% of the contaminated soils remain exposed.

More recently, the Ukraine War has disrupted supplies of staple foods and fertilizers, causing global wheat and maize prices to skyrocket. Nearly 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30% of their wheat imports. In the Sahel region of Africa, local prices for rice, wheat, oil, sugar, and other imports have already risen between 20 to 50%.

Bread riots are by no means a thing of the past, and we can be sure many revolutions will be sparked by these intolerable conditions, exacerbated by the onerous policies imposed by imperialist institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

As many as 3.6 billion people live in areas with high vulnerability to climate change, mainly in Africa, South Asia, South and Central America, and in what are known as “Small Island Developing States.” According to the UNHCR: “Conflict exacerbates the effects of climate change, and climate change, at least indirectly, drives conflict. As the climate crisis intensifies in the coming years and decades, more and more people will be forced to leave their homes as a result of everything from desertification to rising sea levels.”

Over the last fifteen years, the number of forcibly displaced people has tripled to 120 million people, including 35 million asylum seekers and 45 million who are internally displaced. 90% of the world’s refugees have left countries that are already impacted and have the least capacity to adapt to an increasingly hostile environment. Over one billion people are at risk of being displaced by 2050 due to environmental change, conflict, and civil unrest.

And after analyzing current water availability and future projections, the UN predicts that conflict over water is likely in almost 300 areas, with a 75-95% chance of all-out water wars in the next 50–100 years.

When we look only at the facts, the situation can seem quite grim. However, as scientific socialists, we should be clear: capitalism is to blame for this disaster, not humans in the abstract. It is a mode of production organized around the pursuit of profit at all costs that has driven us to this tipping point. Oil companies rake in tens of billions in profits every year, every penny of it at the expense of the world working class. The Fortune 500 alone accounts for around 27% of global emissions.

Although historical counterfactuals are helpful only within certain limits, it’s clear things didn’t need to go this far. Had the Russian Revolution succeeded in spreading worldwide a century ago, we would not have ended up in this state. On the basis of a worldwide planned economy, humans would have successfully expanded production to meet everyone’s needs while keeping our habitat in balance, and science would be at the service of the common good, not private profit.

Fortunately, it’s not too late, and there is something actionable we can do if we are serious about mitigating the effects of climate change and riding out the storm until a more sustainable equilibrium can be reestablished: we can prepare for socialist revolution.

But we’re in a race against time. You can’t plan or control what you don’t own. This is why the RCI fights for the expropriation of the Fortune 500, to be brought into public ownership as part of a democratically planned economy. A workers’ government would rationally harness human creativity and the planet’s natural resources to transition rapidly from fossil fuels while accommodating those currently working in that industry.

As with everything else in this system, all roads lead to class struggle. To fight climate change, fight capitalism!